Doctorin’ the Tardis
Market Update: 6 April 2020 We have been in a Tardis of late, seeing into the future of a COVID world as countries before us experience cases, reactions of shutdowns,
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It’s easier to ask for forgiveness than to manage expectations
US Initial jobless claims reflected that mantra overnight with a whopping 6.6m claims (vs a survey of 3.7m) – double that of the prior week, the markets were pretty quick to forgive this with S&P closing up 2.3% as we head into the unknown of Non-Farm Payrolls tonight (survey of -100k sounds optimistic).
Of course it wasn’t claims that caused the rally, it was the perversity of Trump getting Russia and the Saudis to agree on cutting Oil supply causing a 25% spike higher, to settle to +15%. One would think they have no choice but to reduce supply anyway as demand wanes – not commuting to work or jumping on a plane does that.
8 weeks ago we were “lucky” to have only 15,000 cases – today we broke 1,000,000. So if we’re becoming immune to sticker shock – as that’s what happens when you close businesses, will markets become immune to how COVID-19 spreads in the next 8 weeks?.
If the global psyche is supported by the notion that we’re all suffering – so we don’t take it personally, the next question becomes for how long must we endure? This is surely the next phase of what markets will look to anticipate. A reduction in daily cases gives some light at the end of the tunnel, as does recovery rates – but it might mean less if commerce is still closed.
AUD feels a bit heavy.. USD does gain on Oil moves, but as well, markets don’t like things that don’t move… so if it failed above 62c, 59 might be an option.
Reality Bites
Market Update: 2 April 2020 As euphoria makes way for stone cold truths (and in NSW a 90day lockdown), Global equities fall as Trump tells the American people COVID-19 may last at least until June and deaths may be as high as 240,000.
Good shock and awe
Market Update 31 March 2020 As the Australian Government announce ways for businesses to go ‘into hibernation’, their package to support workers appeased the ASX immensely but didn’t translate into
The Weekends Seem Worse
Market Update: 30 March 2020 The upside of the weekend is that markets are not trading. The downside is, despite improvements on equities and AUD made during the week, the
Central Bank make further cuts and introduce forms of QE
Weekly Market Update: 23 March 2020 As COVID-19 continues to both infect more and create havoc in markets, we continue to find new lows in AUD. The past week saw
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