The Divided States of America


Market Update: 5 November 2020

The pollsters once again seem to have missed the beat of the American populous, as the US Presidential Election remains undecided and voting has been incredibly tight. However, it appears a Biden victory is more likely with Sports Bet already paying out on that basis. Trump is unlikely to “go quietly into the night” and will instead try and litigate his way to the White House. Consequently, we expect markets to remain volatile in the days ahead. In the case of a Biden Presidency, the Republicans will likely still control the Senate leaving the US political system in relative gridlock unless compromises can be reached. Markets are in the meantime taking comfort in that a Republican Senate will protect the Trump tax cuts.

As previously stated our AUD/USD medium term view was agnostic to the election result and we continue to favour AUD outperformance with a move above 0.7500 expected to unfold early in 2021.

Sources: Bloomberg

Contact the Inside Track Research Team for more info: +61 2 8916 6115

The information contained in this report is provided by Rochford Capital Pty Limited – ACN 143 601 594, AFSL 361276. This report is provided for general information purposes and is solely intended for use by persons who are Australian wholesale clients. To the extent that any recommendations or statements of opinion constitute financial product advice, they constitute general financial product advice only. As such, any advice contained in this report does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether this advice is appropriate for you, and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.

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