The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades


Market Update: 29 April 2020

As Scott Morrison tells us the easing of lockdown restrictions are “not too far away”, we look at what that means for AUD and general sentiment.

Some banks are changing their macro-minds to a less protracted period of recovery… not necessarily a V shape for all as perhaps GDP surges back with some gusto in H2 as forward sentiment is telling us, but other metrics like unemployment, CPI and arrivals will take longer – if not years to get back to normal and it’s not like the RBA think prior CPI or Unemployment was good enough anyway.

Interestingly, CPI was better than expected … poor RBA got the 2 handle they wanted at 2.2%, but of course it’s too late.

AUD continues it’s reaching for the stars to 0.6537 .. it’s almost seemingly the catalyst for market enthusiasm.. S&P closed -0.5% yet once AUD rallied, came back 1%. Some moves are just indescribable when liquidity is thin – so rather than the old Sales mantra “there were more buyers than sellers” to explain price action, I’ll leave it liquidity. From here though it should see some further resistance at 0.6570 then 0.6690.

Speaking of future, we’ll be changing the format of this report to a better aesthetic – watch this space!

The Future’s So Bright – by TImbuk 3. For those from the Countdown era…

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