Market Update: 18 May 2020
Similar to the gameplay for collaborating to save the world in our fight against the environment, the statistics show yes, we are winning the battle – but the war is certainly not over. Besides finding it interesting to know that typing in Fortnight in Google, asks you if you mean “Fortnite”, the actual stats show on a logarithmic scale show we’re beating COVID.. but linear isn’t as pretty.
Since last fortnight, global cases are up 35% or +1.24m to 4.8m, Deaths are up 28% or +68k to 317k whilst mortality is 6.6%. The only saving grace is recoveries are up 6.3% to 38.7%, but with cases continuing to outpace, it remains hard to expect recoveries to rapidly improve. This will also inevitably increase as restrictions are gradually reduced.
But why does it feel like we’re doing well? Australia is more the exception than the rule as it moves to 51st place of cases (with a 3.4% increase), 67th place of deaths and 107th place on deaths per capita. We are in many ways, an island. In essence, on par with New Zealand – but with lower lockdown restrictions. Even still, the RBA continues to doubt a speedy recovery for the nation – so extrapolate that to the countries who are still nowhere near an exit strategy.
On the data front, we’ve already had Japanese GDP today… not as bad as expected as they hint towards opening borders, UK unemployment coming out tomorrow as the BOE hint at negative rates, German ZEW surveys and as always the important US jobless claims on Thursday night will lead sentiment.
Although the week has started in a bullish manner for risk upon Japan’s hopes to open borders, the continued rhetoric between US and China in many examples of reducing trade, should keep markets in check.
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