Not now, maybe later
Market Update: 22 April 2020 As we say goodbye to the May Oil futures, June isn’t looking so crash hot… falling to a low of $6.50 overnight to settle at
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Money for nothing and your oil for free
Market Update: 21 April 2020 As Oil continued its slide in the May contracts, touching a low of -$40.32, this is not necessarily a comment on where oil prices are
The Oil slick on the journey to recovery
Market Update: 20 April 2020 As we see improvements in cases, not by just dropping, but as well a pickup in recoveries. Markets, whom tend to have a short attention
Don’t worry about the rabbit in your hat, just put on a new one
Market Update: 17 April 2020 (inner dialogue) There’s some good news out… or at least it sounds good. It’s enough to see stocks move higher and get risk up as
Even a broken clock gets it right twice a day
Market Update: 16 April 2020 Sometimes it’s interesting to see commentators look for ways to fit the price action in markets. It can be a theme that’s driven them crazy
There must be some kind of way outta here, said the joker to the thief…
Market Update: 15 April 2020 As exit strategies are pondered globally, spare a moment for a few facts: Japan cases doubled in the past week (albeit still from a small
(Almost) 2 million reasons
Market Update: 14 April 2020 As we adhered to our civic duty, staying indoors over the Easter Break in the hope to get out sooner than later – using Zoom
The overreaction matched by another?
Market Update: 9 April 2020 If I were to tell you I’ll take 1/3rd of your money but give you 1/2 back because your job is at risk whilst I
Blink and you’ll miss it
Market Update: 8 April 2020 A rally by 4% in S&P overnight was whittled away to zero come the close. These days it’s hard to put a finger on a
Happiness is for the introverts
Market Update: 7 April 2020 As US stocks continue yesterday’s rally up a further 4% to 7%, the assessment might be of euphoria as we look to see a (tentative)
Doctorin’ the Tardis
Market Update: 6 April 2020 We have been in a Tardis of late, seeing into the future of a COVID world as countries before us experience cases, reactions of shutdowns,
It’s easier to ask for forgiveness than to manage expectations
US Initial jobless claims reflected that mantra overnight with a whopping 6.6m claims (vs a survey of 3.7m) – double that of the prior week, the markets were pretty quick to forgive this with S&P closing up 2.3% as we head into the unknown of Non-Farm Payrolls tonight (survey of -100k sounds optimistic).
Of course it wasn’t claims that caused the rally, it was the perversity of Trump getting Russia and the Saudis to agree on cutting Oil supply causing a 25% spike higher, to settle to +15%. One would think they have no choice but to reduce supply anyway as demand wanes – not commuting to work or jumping on a plane does that.
8 weeks ago we were “lucky” to have only 15,000 cases – today we broke 1,000,000. So if we’re becoming immune to sticker shock – as that’s what happens when you close businesses, will markets become immune to how COVID-19 spreads in the next 8 weeks?.
If the global psyche is supported by the notion that we’re all suffering – so we don’t take it personally, the next question becomes for how long must we endure? This is surely the next phase of what markets will look to anticipate. A reduction in daily cases gives some light at the end of the tunnel, as does recovery rates – but it might mean less if commerce is still closed.
AUD feels a bit heavy.. USD does gain on Oil moves, but as well, markets don’t like things that don’t move… so if it failed above 62c, 59 might be an option.